
Surmise
Evidence Lacking
Use 'surmise' to convey you're making a conclusion without solid proof, rather than a random guess.

Seeing the empty driveway, I surmised they weren't home.
Implies Thought
'Surmise' suggests you've considered the evidence you do have before reaching your conclusion.

Judging by the loud noise, I surmise the machine is broken.
Formal Context
The verb 'surmise' is found in more formal or literary contexts than everyday conversation.

Investigators surmised that the painting was a forgery.
Compare with
AssumptionConjectureGuessHypothesisInferencePresumptionSpeculateSupposition
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